A 400 MW solar build in Iberia — is the capture price worth it?
This is an illustrative scenario, not a real customer case. It shows how Krotos frames a power market decision across horizons.
Build, wait, or restructure?
A renewable developer is weighing a 400 MW solar project in southern Spain. Long-term Iberian forwards look supportive, but midday capture prices have been falling as solar penetration grows across the peninsula.
The question is not whether the curve looks good. It is whether this asset, in this zone, in these hours will still earn an economic return through the 2030s — and what structure makes that more likely.
Three futures, three structures.
Merchant solar in ES, no storage, no hedge. Capture price erodes as midday saturation deepens through 2032.
Co-located battery shifts a portion of generation into evening hours, lifting average capture.
10-year offtake at a fixed strike, locking in a floor and exporting tail-risk.
A clearer picture of capture, hour by hour.
Krotos shows when the asset earns — not just the annual average. That changes the case.
What becomes clearer.
Standalone, the project is marginal — solar capture erosion in Iberia carries real downside risk through the 2030s. Adding two hours of storage materially changes the economics; layering a PPA narrows the distribution further.
The decision is no longer "does the forward curve look good?" — it is which structure earns an economic return in the futures we actually believe in.